Strategic Alternatives Fund Market Value
| GFSYX Fund | USD 9.43 0.01 0.11% |
| Symbol | Strategic |
Strategic Alternatives 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Strategic Alternatives' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Strategic Alternatives.
| 05/06/2022 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Strategic Alternatives on May 6, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Strategic Alternatives Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Strategic Alternatives over 720 days. Strategic Alternatives is related to or competes with Us Real, Prudential Real, Commonwealth Real, and Deutsche Real. The fund pursues its investment objective by utilizing alternative or non-traditional principal investment strategies, m... More
Strategic Alternatives Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Strategic Alternatives' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Strategic Alternatives Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.1233 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.62) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.5367 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.11) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1074 |
Strategic Alternatives Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Strategic Alternatives' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Strategic Alternatives' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Strategic Alternatives historical prices to predict the future Strategic Alternatives' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0831 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0155 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.0008) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.53) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.31) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Strategic Alternatives' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Strategic Alternatives Backtested Returns
We consider Strategic Alternatives very steady. Strategic Alternatives owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.21, which indicates the fund had a 0.21% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-six technical indicators for Strategic Alternatives Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Strategic Alternatives' Downside Deviation of 0.1233, standard deviation of 0.1062, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0831 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0224%. The entity has a beta of -0.0397, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Strategic Alternatives are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Strategic Alternatives is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.28 |
Weak reverse predictability
Strategic Alternatives Fund has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Strategic Alternatives time series from 6th of May 2022 to 1st of May 2023 and 1st of May 2023 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Strategic Alternatives price movement. The serial correlation of -0.28 indicates that nearly 28.0% of current Strategic Alternatives price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.28 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.39 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
Strategic Alternatives lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Strategic Alternatives mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Strategic Alternatives' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Strategic Alternatives returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Strategic Alternatives has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Strategic Alternatives regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Strategic Alternatives mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Strategic Alternatives mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Strategic Alternatives mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Strategic Alternatives Lagged Returns
When evaluating Strategic Alternatives' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Strategic Alternatives mutual fund have on its future price. Strategic Alternatives autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Strategic Alternatives autocorrelation shows the relationship between Strategic Alternatives mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Strategic Alternatives Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Strategic Alternatives technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.