First Investors Premium Fund Market Value
| FPIMX Fund | USD 5.29 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | First |
First Investors 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Investors' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Investors.
| 10/24/2022 |
| 04/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Investors on October 24, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Investors Premium or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Investors over 540 days. First Investors is related to or competes with First Investors, First Investors, First Investors, First Investors, and First Investors. The fund invests in a portfolio of equity securities and writes call options on those securities More
First Investors Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Investors' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Investors Premium upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.25 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.3781 |
First Investors Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Investors' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Investors' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Investors historical prices to predict the future First Investors' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0273 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.014 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2312 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Investors' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Investors Premium Backtested Returns
We consider First Investors not too volatile. First Investors Premium secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0489, which denotes the fund had a 0.0489% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-four technical indicators for First Investors Premium, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm First Investors' Coefficient Of Variation of 2334.41, mean deviation of 0.2288, and Downside Deviation of 1.13 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.033%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0784, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, First Investors' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Investors is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.81 |
Very good predictability
First Investors Premium has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Investors time series from 24th of October 2022 to 21st of July 2023 and 21st of July 2023 to 16th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Investors Premium price movement. The serial correlation of 0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current First Investors price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.81 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.85 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
First Investors Premium lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Investors mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Investors' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Investors returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Investors has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Investors regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Investors mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Investors mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Investors mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Investors Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Investors' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Investors mutual fund have on its future price. First Investors autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Investors autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Investors mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Investors Premium.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards First Investors in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, First Investors' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from First Investors options trading.
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First Investors technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.