Fidelity Mega Cap Fund Market Value
| FGTAX Fund | USD 22.37 0.01 0.04% |
| Symbol | Fidelity |
Fidelity Mega 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fidelity Mega's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fidelity Mega.
| 03/21/2024 |
| 04/20/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fidelity Mega on March 21, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fidelity Mega Cap or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fidelity Mega over 30 days. Fidelity Mega is related to or competes with Fidelity Freedom, Fidelity Puritan, Fidelity Puritan, Fidelity Pennsylvania, Fidelity Freedom, Fidelity Freedom, and Fidelity Salem. The fund invests at least 80 percent of its assets in common stocks of companies with mega market capitalizations More
Fidelity Mega Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fidelity Mega's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fidelity Mega Cap upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.6269 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0894 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.11 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.96) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.17 |
Fidelity Mega Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fidelity Mega's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fidelity Mega's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fidelity Mega historical prices to predict the future Fidelity Mega's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1378 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1345 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.054 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0899 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.63) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Mega's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelity Mega Cap Backtested Returns
We consider Fidelity Mega very steady. Fidelity Mega Cap secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.2, which denotes the fund had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Fidelity Mega Cap, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Fidelity Mega's Downside Deviation of 0.6269, coefficient of variation of 445.11, and Mean Deviation of 0.4904 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0363, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Fidelity Mega are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Fidelity Mega is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.04 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Fidelity Mega Cap has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fidelity Mega time series from 21st of March 2024 to 5th of April 2024 and 5th of April 2024 to 20th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fidelity Mega Cap price movement. The serial correlation of -0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Fidelity Mega price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.21 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.07 |
Fidelity Mega Cap lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fidelity Mega mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fidelity Mega's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fidelity Mega returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fidelity Mega has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Mega regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fidelity Mega mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fidelity Mega mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fidelity Mega mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Mega Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fidelity Mega's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fidelity Mega mutual fund have on its future price. Fidelity Mega autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fidelity Mega autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fidelity Mega mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fidelity Mega Cap.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fidelity Mega in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fidelity Mega's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fidelity Mega options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Fidelity Mega Correlation, Fidelity Mega Volatility and Fidelity Mega Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Fidelity Mega. Note that the Fidelity Mega Cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fidelity Mega's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Fidelity Mega technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.