AVIS BUDGET (Germany) Market Value
| CUCA Stock | EUR 98.38 3.32 3.26% |
| Symbol | AVIS |
AVIS BUDGET 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AVIS BUDGET's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AVIS BUDGET.
| 04/25/2023 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AVIS BUDGET on April 25, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AVIS BUDGET GROUP or generate 0.0% return on investment in AVIS BUDGET over 360 days. AVIS BUDGET is related to or competes with GigaMedia, MOLSON COORS, COMMERCIAL VEHICLE, BRAGG GAMING, Sharplink Gaming, and GameStop Corp. More
AVIS BUDGET Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AVIS BUDGET's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AVIS BUDGET GROUP upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 25.08 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.37) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.13 |
AVIS BUDGET Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AVIS BUDGET's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AVIS BUDGET's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AVIS BUDGET historical prices to predict the future AVIS BUDGET's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.47) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.88) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5441 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AVIS BUDGET's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AVIS BUDGET GROUP Backtested Returns
AVIS BUDGET GROUP secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.16, which signifies that the company had a -0.16% return per unit of return volatility over the last 3 months. AVIS BUDGET GROUP exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm AVIS BUDGET's Coefficient Of Variation of (742.21), risk adjusted performance of (0.07), and Mean Deviation of 2.47 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.96, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As the market becomes more bullish, returns on owning AVIS BUDGET are expected to decrease slowly. On the other hand, during market turmoil, AVIS BUDGET is expected to outperform it slightly. AVIS BUDGET GROUP has an expected return of -0.6%. Please make sure to confirm AVIS BUDGET GROUP standard deviation, information ratio, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the variance and jensen alpha , to decide if AVIS BUDGET GROUP performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | -0.14 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
AVIS BUDGET GROUP has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AVIS BUDGET time series from 25th of April 2023 to 22nd of October 2023 and 22nd of October 2023 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AVIS BUDGET GROUP price movement. The serial correlation of -0.14 indicates that less than 14.0% of current AVIS BUDGET price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.14 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 748.77 |
AVIS BUDGET GROUP lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AVIS BUDGET stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AVIS BUDGET's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AVIS BUDGET returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AVIS BUDGET has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AVIS BUDGET regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AVIS BUDGET stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AVIS BUDGET stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AVIS BUDGET stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AVIS BUDGET Lagged Returns
When evaluating AVIS BUDGET's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AVIS BUDGET stock have on its future price. AVIS BUDGET autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AVIS BUDGET autocorrelation shows the relationship between AVIS BUDGET stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AVIS BUDGET GROUP.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AVIS BUDGET in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AVIS BUDGET's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AVIS BUDGET options trading.
Pair Trading with AVIS BUDGET
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AVIS BUDGET position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AVIS BUDGET will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with AVIS Stock
| 0.77 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
Moving against AVIS Stock
| 0.86 | HYU | Hyundai Motor | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | HYU | Hyundai Motor | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | MFZA | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | HYU | Hyundai Motor | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | 2WGA | WOORI FIN GRP | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AVIS BUDGET could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AVIS BUDGET when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AVIS BUDGET - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AVIS BUDGET GROUP to buy it.
The correlation of AVIS BUDGET is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AVIS BUDGET moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AVIS BUDGET GROUP moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AVIS BUDGET can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out AVIS BUDGET Correlation, AVIS BUDGET Volatility and AVIS BUDGET Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on AVIS BUDGET. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Complementary Tools for AVIS Stock analysis
When running AVIS BUDGET's price analysis, check to measure AVIS BUDGET's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AVIS BUDGET is operating at the current time. Most of AVIS BUDGET's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AVIS BUDGET's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AVIS BUDGET's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AVIS BUDGET to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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AVIS BUDGET technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.