Blue Bird Corp Stock Market Value
| BLBD Stock | USD 34.22 1.79 4.97% |
| Symbol | Blue |
Is Blue Bird's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Bird. If investors know Blue will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Bird listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Blue Bird Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Bird's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Bird's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Bird's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Bird's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Bird's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Blue Bird is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Bird's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Blue Bird 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Blue Bird's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Blue Bird.
| 03/19/2024 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Blue Bird on March 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Blue Bird Corp or generate 0.0% return on investment in Blue Bird over 30 days. Blue Bird is related to or competes with Vicinity, AYRO, Canoo, Hyzon Motors, Polestar Automotive, Li AutoInc, and Xpeng. Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, C... More
Blue Bird Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Blue Bird's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Blue Bird Corp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1724 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.35 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.66) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.1 |
Blue Bird Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Blue Bird's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Blue Bird's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Blue Bird historical prices to predict the future Blue Bird's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1294 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5027 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.313 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1642 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 8.33 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blue Bird's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Blue Bird Corp Backtested Returns
Blue Bird appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Blue Bird Corp secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.19, which signifies that the company had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Blue Bird's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.52% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Blue Bird's Mean Deviation of 2.04, risk adjusted performance of 0.1294, and Downside Deviation of 2.8 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Blue Bird holds a performance score of 15. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0607, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Blue Bird's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Blue Bird is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Blue Bird's potential upside, skewness, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to make a quick decision on whether Blue Bird's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.74 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Blue Bird Corp has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Blue Bird time series from 19th of March 2024 to 3rd of April 2024 and 3rd of April 2024 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Blue Bird Corp price movement. The serial correlation of -0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Blue Bird price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.92 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.98 |
Blue Bird Corp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Blue Bird stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Blue Bird's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Blue Bird returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Blue Bird has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Blue Bird regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Blue Bird stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Blue Bird stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Blue Bird stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Blue Bird Lagged Returns
When evaluating Blue Bird's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Blue Bird stock have on its future price. Blue Bird autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Blue Bird autocorrelation shows the relationship between Blue Bird stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Blue Bird Corp.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Blue Bird in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Blue Bird's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Blue Bird options trading.
Pair Trading with Blue Bird
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Blue Bird position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Blue Bird will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Blue Stock
| 0.86 | GM | General Motors Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | ELMSQ | Electric Last Mile | PairCorr |
Moving against Blue Stock
| 0.85 | PEV | Phoenix Motor Common | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | GP | GreenPower Motor Financial Report 12th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | EGOX | NexteGO NV Ordinary | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | FFIE | Faraday Future Intel | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | VLCN | Volcon Inc Financial Report 3rd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Blue Bird could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Blue Bird when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Blue Bird - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Blue Bird Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Blue Bird is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Blue Bird moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Blue Bird Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Blue Bird can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Blue Bird Correlation, Blue Bird Volatility and Blue Bird Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Blue Bird. Note that the Blue Bird Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Blue Bird's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Complementary Tools for Blue Stock analysis
When running Blue Bird's price analysis, check to measure Blue Bird's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blue Bird is operating at the current time. Most of Blue Bird's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blue Bird's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blue Bird's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blue Bird to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Blue Bird technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.