American Growth Fund Market Value
| AMRBX Fund | USD 4.66 0.02 0.43% |
| Symbol | American |
American Growth 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Growth's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Growth.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Growth on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Growth Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Growth over 30 days. American Growth is related to or competes with Prudential Government, Davis Government, Us Government, Payden Government, Aig Government, and Short Term. The advisor uses a consistent approach to build the funds security portfolio which is made up primarily of common stocks... More
American Growth Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Growth's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Growth Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.93 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.63) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.22 |
American Growth Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Growth's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Growth's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Growth historical prices to predict the future American Growth's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.625 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Growth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Growth Backtested Returns
American Growth secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0715, which signifies that the fund had a -0.0715% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. American Growth Fund exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm American Growth's risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Mean Deviation of 0.6842 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.12, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning American Growth are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, American Growth is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.81 |
Very good predictability
American Growth Fund has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Growth time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Growth price movement. The serial correlation of 0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current American Growth price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.81 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
American Growth lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Growth mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Growth's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Growth returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Growth has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Growth regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Growth mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Growth mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Growth mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Growth Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Growth's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Growth mutual fund have on its future price. American Growth autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Growth autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Growth mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Growth Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with American Growth
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Growth position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Growth will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with American Mutual Fund
| 0.66 | AMRGX | American Growth | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | AMRCX | American Growth | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Growth could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Growth when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Growth - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Growth Fund to buy it.
The correlation of American Growth is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Growth moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Growth moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Growth can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out American Growth Correlation, American Growth Volatility and American Growth Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Growth. Note that the American Growth information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Growth's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
American Growth technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.