Adler Value Fund Market Value
| ADLVX Fund | USD 25.24 0.17 0.67% |
| Symbol | Adler |
Adler Value 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Adler Value's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Adler Value.
| 06/28/2022 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Adler Value on June 28, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Adler Value Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Adler Value over 660 days. Adler Value is related to or competes with Prudential Jennison, Prudential Jennison, Prudential Jennison, Prudential Total, and Prudential Qma. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing principally in equity securities of U.S More
Adler Value Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Adler Value's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Adler Value Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9588 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.42 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.31) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.31 |
Adler Value Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Adler Value's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Adler Value's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Adler Value historical prices to predict the future Adler Value's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.037 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0324 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.07 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adler Value's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adler Value Fund Backtested Returns
We consider Adler Value very steady. Adler Value Fund secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1, which signifies that the fund had a 0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Adler Value Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Adler Value's Downside Deviation of 0.9588, mean deviation of 0.6171, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.037 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0809%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0316, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Adler Value's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Adler Value is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.19 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Adler Value Fund has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Adler Value time series from 28th of June 2022 to 24th of May 2023 and 24th of May 2023 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Adler Value Fund price movement. The serial correlation of -0.19 indicates that over 19.0% of current Adler Value price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.19 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.37 |
Adler Value Fund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Adler Value mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Adler Value's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Adler Value returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Adler Value has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Adler Value regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Adler Value mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Adler Value mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Adler Value mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Adler Value Lagged Returns
When evaluating Adler Value's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Adler Value mutual fund have on its future price. Adler Value autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Adler Value autocorrelation shows the relationship between Adler Value mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Adler Value Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Adler Value in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Adler Value's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Adler Value options trading.
Pair Trading with Adler Value
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Adler Value position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Adler Value will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Adler Mutual Fund
| 0.93 | FLPKX | Fidelity Low Priced | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | FLPSX | Fidelity Low Priced | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | VMVAX | Vanguard Mid Cap | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | JVMAX | John Hancock Disciplined | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Adler Value could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Adler Value when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Adler Value - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Adler Value Fund to buy it.
The correlation of Adler Value is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Adler Value moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Adler Value Fund moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Adler Value can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Adler Value Correlation, Adler Value Volatility and Adler Value Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Adler Value. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Adler Value technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.