United Parcel Service Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

UPS Stock  USD 147.33  3.54  2.46%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding United Parcel Service is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides United Parcel buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding UPS positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of United Parcel's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting United Parcel's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
163.84
Target Price
179.74
Hype Value
147.49
Market Value
147.33
Naive Value
145.51
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell United Parcel Service given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards United Parcel. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for United Parcel Service, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out United Parcel Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as United and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards United Parcel Service. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.

Execute United Parcel Buy or Sell Advice

The United recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on United Parcel Service. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in United Parcel Service or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute United Parcel's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell United ParcelBuy United Parcel
Strong Hold

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Responds to the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon United Parcel Service has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01), Jensen Alpha of (0.23), Total Risk Alpha of (0.49) and Treynor Ratio of (0.06)
Macroaxis provides recommendation on United Parcel Service to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on United Parcel Service. Our trade recommendation engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure United Parcel Service is not overpriced, please validate all United Parcel fundamentals, including its price to sales, short ratio, z score, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and market capitalization . Given that United Parcel Service has a price to book of 7.09 X, we advise you to double-check United Parcel Service market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

United Parcel Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

United Parcel generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 72.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
On 8th of March 2024 United Parcel paid $ 1.63 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: UPS recovers some ground after analysts say sell-off was overdone

United Parcel Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of United Parcel's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of United Parcel's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of United Parcel daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use United Parcel Service price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of United Parcel returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for United Parcel.
Mean Return
-0.06
Value At Risk
-2.17
Potential Upside
2.00
Standard Deviation
1.88
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of United Parcel historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

United Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as United Parcel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Parcel Service backward and forwards among themselves. United Parcel's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase United Parcel's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Ameriprise Financial Inc2023-12-31
8.9 M
Viking Global Investors Lp2023-12-31
8.2 M
Northern Trust Corp2023-12-31
7.7 M
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
7.3 M
Norges Bank2023-12-31
7.2 M
Wells Fargo & Co2023-12-31
6.9 M
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2023-12-31
6.7 M
Clearbridge Advisors, Llc2023-12-31
6.3 M
Amvescap Plc.2023-12-31
5.9 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
67.2 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
54.3 M
Note, although United Parcel's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

United Parcel Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash871M672M4.3B(4.7B)(2.4B)(2.3B)
Free Cash Flow2.3B5.0B10.8B9.3B5.1B3.9B
Depreciation2.4B2.7B3.0B3.2B3.4B2.0B
Other Non Cash Items688M5.3B(2.7B)(2.3B)259M258.3M
Dividends Paid3.2B3.4B3.4B5.1B(5.4B)(5.1B)
Capital Expenditures6.4B5.4B4.2B4.8B5.2B3.3B
Net Income4.4B1.4B12.9B11.5B6.7B4.4B
End Period Cash Flow5.2B5.9B10.3B5.6B3.2B3.6B
Change To Netincome1.9B4.9B(172M)(249M)(286.4M)(272.0M)
Investments335M150M(3.8B)(1.6B)(9.0B)(8.5B)
Change Receivables(717M)(1.6B)(2.1B)(322M)(289.8M)(304.3M)
Net Borrowings2.4B(851M)(2.8B)(2.3B)(2.1B)(2.0B)

United Parcel Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to United Parcel or Air Freight & Logistics sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that United Parcel's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a United stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.23
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.27
σ
Overall volatility
1.96
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

United Parcel Volatility Alert

United Parcel Service exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -2.18 and kurtosis of 9.66. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure United Parcel's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact United Parcel's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

United Parcel Implied Volatility

United Parcel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Parcel Service stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Parcel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Parcel stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Parcel's options are near their expiration.

United Parcel Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing United Parcel's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze United Parcel's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between United Parcel and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as United Parcel or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of United Parcel's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Parcel by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare United Parcel to competition
FundamentalsUnited ParcelPeer Average
Return On Equity0.36-0.31
Return On Asset0.0861-0.14
Profit Margin0.07 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.11 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation143.33 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding727.93 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders0.01 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions72.19 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted10.96 M4.71 M
Price To Earning14.87 X28.72 X
Price To Book7.09 X9.51 X
Price To Sales1.35 X11.42 X
Revenue90.96 B9.43 B
Gross Profit25.09 B27.38 B
EBITDA12.51 B3.9 B
Net Income6.71 B570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents5.6 B2.7 B
Cash Per Share13.15 X5.01 X
Total Debt26.73 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity1.41 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.39 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share20.29 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations10.24 B971.22 M
Short Ratio2.28 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share7.79 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth1.71 X4.89 X
Target Price158.68
Number Of Employees265.1 K18.84 K
Beta1.05-0.15
Market Capitalization122.67 B19.03 B
Total Asset70.86 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings21.05 B9.33 B
Working Capital1.74 B1.48 B
Note: Acquisition by Kevin Warsh of 214 shares of United Parcel subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

United Parcel Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as United . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About United Parcel Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell United Parcel Service? Buying financial instruments such as United Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total25.5B23.5B26.7B28.1B
Total Assets69.4B71.1B70.9B43.6B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having United Parcel in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Run Real Estate Thematic Idea Now

Real Estate
Real Estate Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Real Estate theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Real Estate Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether United Parcel Service is a strong investment it is important to analyze United Parcel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact United Parcel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding United Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out United Parcel Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

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Is United Parcel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Parcel. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Parcel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.53)
Dividend Share
6.48
Earnings Share
7.79
Revenue Per Share
105.888
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.08)
The market value of United Parcel Service is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Parcel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Parcel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Parcel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Parcel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Parcel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Parcel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Parcel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.