Shopify Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| SHOP Stock | USD 72.26 1.75 2.36% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Shopify is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Shopify buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Shopify positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Shopify's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Shopify's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 56.25 | Target Price 66.14 | Hype Value 74.01 | Market Value 72.26 | Naive Value 76.65 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Shopify given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Shopify. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Shopify, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Shopify |
Execute Shopify Buy or Sell Advice
The Shopify recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Shopify. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Shopify or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Shopify's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost mirrors the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Shopify Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Shopify generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Shopify is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Why Shopify Stock Is Up Today |
Shopify Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Shopify's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Shopify's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Shopify daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Shopify price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Shopify returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Shopify.
| Mean Return | -0.08 | Value At Risk | -3.85 | Potential Upside | 4.52 | Standard Deviation | 2.90 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Shopify historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Shopify Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Shopify is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shopify backward and forwards among themselves. Shopify's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Shopify's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Sands Capital Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 14.8 M | Loomis, Sayles & Company Lp | 2023-12-31 | 13.7 M | Bank Of Montreal | 2023-12-31 | 13.5 M | Bmo Capital Markets Corp. | 2023-12-31 | 13.5 M | Norges Bank | 2023-12-31 | 13.5 M | Fidelity International Ltd | 2023-12-31 | 13.3 M | Franklin Resources Inc | 2023-12-31 | 11.4 M | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 11.3 M | Wellington Management Company Llp | 2023-12-31 | 10.2 M | Baillie Gifford & Co Limited. | 2023-12-31 | 64.2 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 52.5 M |
Shopify Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 239.2M | 2.1B | (200.6M) | (853.7M) | (236M) | (224.2M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 8.2M | 383.0M | 453.6M | (186.5M) | 905M | 950.3M | |
| Depreciation | 35.7M | 70.1M | 66.3M | 90.5M | 70M | 37.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 19.1M | (69.2M) | (2.8B) | 3.0B | (67M) | (63.7M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 62.4M | 42.0M | 50.8M | 50.0M | 39M | 35.4M | |
| Net Income | (124.8M) | 319.5M | 2.9B | (3.5B) | 132M | 138.6M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 649.9M | 2.7B | 2.5B | 1.6B | 1.4B | 899.1M | |
| Investments | (569.5M) | (1.9B) | (2.2B) | (718.6M) | (1.2B) | (1.2B) | |
| Change To Netincome | 141.7M | 127.0M | (2.3B) | 3.3B | 3.8B | 4.0B |
Shopify Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Shopify or IT Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Shopify's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Shopify stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Shopify Volatility Alert
Shopify exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -1.0 and kurtosis of 6.43. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Shopify's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Shopify's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Shopify Implied Volatility
Shopify's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Shopify stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Shopify's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Shopify stock will not fluctuate a lot when Shopify's options are near their expiration.
Shopify Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Shopify's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Shopify's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Shopify and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Shopify or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Shopify's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shopify by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Shopify to competition |
| Fundamentals | Shopify | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0153 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0147 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.02 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.22 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 91.38 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.21 B | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.18 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 70.64 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 16.97 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 282.85 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 9.94 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 12.76 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 7.06 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 2.75 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (88 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 132 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.65 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.88 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.15 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.15 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 6.64 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 7.05 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 944 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.56 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.10 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.12 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 82.7 | |
| Number Of Employees | 8.3 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 2.2 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 94.42 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 11.3 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (390 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 5.38 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Eisenberg Michael A of 75000 shares of Shopify subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Shopify Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Shopify . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 249834.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.57) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 73.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 72.88 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.80) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.75) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.29 |
About Shopify Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Shopify? Buying financial instruments such as Shopify Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.2B | 1.2B | Total Assets | 13.3B | 10.8B | 11.3B | 11.9B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Shopify in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Video Games
Companies that are involved in the building and marketing of video games or gaming software. The Video Games theme has 24 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Video Games Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Shopify Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in Shopify Stock, please use our How to Invest in Shopify guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Complementary Tools for Shopify Stock analysis
When running Shopify's price analysis, check to measure Shopify's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shopify is operating at the current time. Most of Shopify's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shopify's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shopify's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shopify to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Shopify's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shopify. If investors know Shopify will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shopify listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.858 | Earnings Share 0.1 | Revenue Per Share 5.509 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.236 | Return On Assets 0.0147 |
The market value of Shopify is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shopify that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shopify's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shopify's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shopify's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shopify's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shopify's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shopify is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shopify's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.