Origin Agritech Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

SEED Stock  USD 4.04  0.06  1.51%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your way above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Origin Agritech is 'Strong Sell'. Macroaxis provides Origin Agritech buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding SEED positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Origin Agritech's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Origin Agritech's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
2.86
Hype Value
4.04
Market Value
4.04
Naive Value
4.8
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Origin Agritech given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Origin Agritech. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Origin Agritech, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Origin Agritech Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For information on how to trade Origin Stock refer to our How to Trade Origin Stock guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Origin and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Origin Agritech. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in income.

Execute Origin Agritech Buy or Sell Advice

The Origin recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Origin Agritech. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Origin Agritech or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Origin Agritech's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Origin AgritechBuy Origin Agritech
Strong Sell

Market Performance

OKDetails

Volatility

DangerousDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

OvervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Moves totally opposite to the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Not AvailableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

UnavailableDetails
For the selected time horizon Origin Agritech has a Mean Deviation of 5.94, Semi Deviation of 5.74, Standard Deviation of 10.14, Variance of 102.87, Downside Variance of 51.48 and Semi Variance of 33.0
We provide trade recommendations to complement the recent expert consensus on Origin Agritech. Our dynamic recommendation engine exercises a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the firm's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Origin Agritech is not overpriced, please check all Origin Agritech fundamentals, including its number of shares shorted, net income, book value per share, as well as the relationship between the revenue and total debt . Given that Origin Agritech has a number of shares shorted of 47.01 K, we recommend you to check out Origin Agritech market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your recent risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Origin Agritech Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Origin Agritech is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Origin Agritech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Origin Agritech has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company currently holds 241 K in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 180.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Origin Agritech has a current ratio of 0.13, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Origin Agritech until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Origin Agritech's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Origin Agritech sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Origin to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Origin Agritech's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Origin Agritech currently holds about 6.51 M in cash with (5.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13.
Roughly 13.0% of Origin Agritech outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Top 5 Defensive Stocks That May Plunge This Quarter

Origin Agritech Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Origin Agritech's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Origin Agritech's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Origin Agritech daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Origin Agritech price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Origin Agritech returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Origin Agritech.
Mean Return
1.58
Value At Risk
-10.51
Potential Upside
10.97
Standard Deviation
10.14
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Origin Agritech historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Origin Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Origin Agritech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Origin Agritech backward and forwards among themselves. Origin Agritech's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Origin Agritech's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Pfg Advisors2023-12-31
0.0
Advisor Group Holdings, Inc.2023-12-31
0.0
Corecap Advisors, Llc2023-09-30
0.0
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
35.5 K
Susquehanna International Group, Llp2023-12-31
21.5 K
First Wilshire Securities Mgmt Inc (ca)2023-12-31
19.5 K
Xtx Topco Ltd2023-12-31
13.1 K
Oppenheimer & Co Inc2023-12-31
13 K
Ubs Group Ag2023-12-31
4.8 K
Group One Trading, Lp2023-12-31
100.0
Bank Of America Corp2023-12-31
55.0
Note, although Origin Agritech's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Origin Agritech Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash19.3M(7.1M)2.3M6.0M5.4M8.4M
Free Cash Flow(5.6M)(26.8M)2.7M(17.7M)(15.9M)(16.7M)
Other Non Cash Items71.0M116.6M987K(20.4M)(23.4M)(22.2M)
Net Income(102.8M)(127.1M)2.3M62.7M56.4M59.2M
End Period Cash Flow22.5M15.4M17.7M23.7M21.3M20.3M
Change To Netincome19.8M66.5M92.0M10.6M12.2M11.6M
Change To Inventory6.9M1.4M2.1M(10.9M)(12.6M)(13.2M)
Depreciation10.6M8.3M3.9M4.0M3.6M3.4M
Investments(42.2M)(1.2M)(1.1M)(11.2M)(10.1M)(9.6M)

Origin Agritech Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Origin Agritech or Food Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Origin Agritech's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Origin stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
1.67
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.77
σ
Overall volatility
10.17
Ir
Information ratio 0.14

Origin Agritech Volatility Alert

Origin Agritech is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Origin Agritech's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Origin Agritech's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Origin Agritech Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Origin Agritech's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Origin Agritech's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Origin Agritech and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Origin Agritech or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Origin Agritech's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Origin Agritech by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Origin Agritech to competition
FundamentalsOrigin AgritechPeer Average
Return On Equity-3.72-0.31
Return On Asset-0.0427-0.14
Profit Margin0.59 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0.46) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation21.75 M16.62 B
Shares Outstanding6.31 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders13.26 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions1.84 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted47.01 K4.71 M
Price To Book4.86 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.27 X11.42 X
Revenue93.31 M9.43 B
Gross Profit16.19 M27.38 B
EBITDA71.54 M3.9 B
Net Income62.67 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents6.51 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share1.13 X5.01 X
Total Debt241 K5.32 B
Debt To Equity180.20 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.13 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share(9.08) X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations(5.46 M)971.22 M
Short Ratio0.05 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.17 X3.12 X
Target Price5.0
Number Of Employees6318.84 K
Beta1.21-0.15
Market Capitalization25.13 M19.03 B
Total Asset238.51 M29.47 B
Retained Earnings(601.57 M)9.33 B
Working Capital(171.68 M)1.48 B
Current Asset478.1 M9.34 B
Current Liabilities614.5 M7.9 B

Origin Agritech Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Origin . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Origin Agritech Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Origin Agritech? Buying financial instruments such as Origin Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Total Current Liabilities292.9M313.5M360.5M446.5M
Total Assets136.0M238.5M214.7M203.9M

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Origin Agritech in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Strategy ETFs
Strategy ETFs Theme
ETF themes focus on helping investors to gain exposure to a broad range of assets, diversify, and lower overall costs. The Strategy ETFs theme has 1187 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Strategy ETFs Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Origin Agritech is a strong investment it is important to analyze Origin Agritech's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Origin Agritech's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Origin Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Origin Agritech Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For information on how to trade Origin Stock refer to our How to Trade Origin Stock guide.
Note that the Origin Agritech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Origin Agritech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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When running Origin Agritech's price analysis, check to measure Origin Agritech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Agritech is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Agritech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Agritech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Agritech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Agritech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Origin Agritech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Agritech. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Agritech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
1.17
Revenue Per Share
14.254
Quarterly Revenue Growth
3.38
Return On Assets
(0.04)
Return On Equity
(3.72)
The market value of Origin Agritech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Agritech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Agritech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Agritech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Agritech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Agritech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Origin Agritech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Agritech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.