Origin Agritech Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
SEED Stock | USD 4.04 0.06 1.51% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your way above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Origin Agritech is 'Strong Sell'. Macroaxis provides Origin Agritech buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding SEED positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Origin Agritech's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Origin Agritech's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 2.86 | Hype Value 4.04 | Market Value 4.04 | Naive Value 4.8 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Origin Agritech given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Origin Agritech. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Origin Agritech, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Origin |
Execute Origin Agritech Buy or Sell Advice
The Origin recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Origin Agritech. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Origin Agritech or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Origin Agritech's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
Strong Sell
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Dangerous | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Moves totally opposite to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Not Available | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Origin Agritech Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
Origin Agritech is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
Origin Agritech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
Origin Agritech has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
The company currently holds 241 K in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 180.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Origin Agritech has a current ratio of 0.13, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Origin Agritech until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Origin Agritech's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Origin Agritech sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Origin to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Origin Agritech's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
Origin Agritech currently holds about 6.51 M in cash with (5.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13. | |
Roughly 13.0% of Origin Agritech outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Top 5 Defensive Stocks That May Plunge This Quarter |
Origin Agritech Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Origin Agritech's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Origin Agritech's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Origin Agritech daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Origin Agritech price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Origin Agritech returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Origin Agritech.
Mean Return | 1.58 | Value At Risk | -10.51 | Potential Upside | 10.97 | Standard Deviation | 10.14 |
Return Density |
Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Origin Agritech historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Origin Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Origin Agritech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Origin Agritech backward and forwards among themselves. Origin Agritech's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Origin Agritech's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares | Pfg Advisors | 2023-12-31 | 0.0 | Advisor Group Holdings, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 0.0 | Corecap Advisors, Llc | 2023-09-30 | 0.0 | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 35.5 K | Susquehanna International Group, Llp | 2023-12-31 | 21.5 K | First Wilshire Securities Mgmt Inc (ca) | 2023-12-31 | 19.5 K | Xtx Topco Ltd | 2023-12-31 | 13.1 K | Oppenheimer & Co Inc | 2023-12-31 | 13 K | Ubs Group Ag | 2023-12-31 | 4.8 K | Group One Trading, Lp | 2023-12-31 | 100.0 | Bank Of America Corp | 2023-12-31 | 55.0 |
Origin Agritech Cash Flow Accounts
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
Change In Cash | 19.3M | (7.1M) | 2.3M | 6.0M | 5.4M | 8.4M | |
Free Cash Flow | (5.6M) | (26.8M) | 2.7M | (17.7M) | (15.9M) | (16.7M) | |
Other Non Cash Items | 71.0M | 116.6M | 987K | (20.4M) | (23.4M) | (22.2M) | |
Net Income | (102.8M) | (127.1M) | 2.3M | 62.7M | 56.4M | 59.2M | |
End Period Cash Flow | 22.5M | 15.4M | 17.7M | 23.7M | 21.3M | 20.3M | |
Change To Netincome | 19.8M | 66.5M | 92.0M | 10.6M | 12.2M | 11.6M | |
Change To Inventory | 6.9M | 1.4M | 2.1M | (10.9M) | (12.6M) | (13.2M) | |
Depreciation | 10.6M | 8.3M | 3.9M | 4.0M | 3.6M | 3.4M | |
Investments | (42.2M) | (1.2M) | (1.1M) | (11.2M) | (10.1M) | (9.6M) |
Origin Agritech Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Origin Agritech or Food Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Origin Agritech's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Origin stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 1.67 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.77 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Origin Agritech Volatility Alert
Origin Agritech is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Origin Agritech's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Origin Agritech's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Origin Agritech Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Origin Agritech's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Origin Agritech's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Origin Agritech and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Origin Agritech or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Origin Agritech's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Origin Agritech by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Origin Agritech to competition |
Fundamentals | Origin Agritech | Peer Average |
Return On Equity | -3.72 | -0.31 |
Return On Asset | -0.0427 | -0.14 |
Profit Margin | 0.59 % | (1.27) % |
Operating Margin | (0.46) % | (5.51) % |
Current Valuation | 21.75 M | 16.62 B |
Shares Outstanding | 6.31 M | 571.82 M |
Shares Owned By Insiders | 13.26 % | 10.09 % |
Shares Owned By Institutions | 1.84 % | 39.21 % |
Number Of Shares Shorted | 47.01 K | 4.71 M |
Price To Book | 4.86 X | 9.51 X |
Price To Sales | 0.27 X | 11.42 X |
Revenue | 93.31 M | 9.43 B |
Gross Profit | 16.19 M | 27.38 B |
EBITDA | 71.54 M | 3.9 B |
Net Income | 62.67 M | 570.98 M |
Cash And Equivalents | 6.51 M | 2.7 B |
Cash Per Share | 1.13 X | 5.01 X |
Total Debt | 241 K | 5.32 B |
Debt To Equity | 180.20 % | 48.70 % |
Current Ratio | 0.13 X | 2.16 X |
Book Value Per Share | (9.08) X | 1.93 K |
Cash Flow From Operations | (5.46 M) | 971.22 M |
Short Ratio | 0.05 X | 4.00 X |
Earnings Per Share | 1.17 X | 3.12 X |
Target Price | 5.0 | |
Number Of Employees | 63 | 18.84 K |
Beta | 1.21 | -0.15 |
Market Capitalization | 25.13 M | 19.03 B |
Total Asset | 238.51 M | 29.47 B |
Retained Earnings | (601.57 M) | 9.33 B |
Working Capital | (171.68 M) | 1.48 B |
Current Asset | 478.1 M | 9.34 B |
Current Liabilities | 614.5 M | 7.9 B |
Origin Agritech Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Origin . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution | 2451.4 | |||
Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3 | |||
Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
Day Median Price | 3.97 | |||
Day Typical Price | 3.99 | |||
Price Action Indicator | 0.1 | |||
Period Momentum Indicator | 0.06 |
About Origin Agritech Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Origin Agritech? Buying financial instruments such as Origin Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Total Current Liabilities | 292.9M | 313.5M | 360.5M | 446.5M | Total Assets | 136.0M | 238.5M | 214.7M | 203.9M |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Origin Agritech in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Strategy ETFs Thematic Idea Now
Strategy ETFs
ETF themes focus on helping investors to gain exposure to a broad range of assets, diversify, and lower overall costs. The Strategy ETFs theme has 1187 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Strategy ETFs Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Origin Agritech Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For information on how to trade Origin Stock refer to our How to Trade Origin Stock guide.Note that the Origin Agritech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Origin Agritech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Origin Stock analysis
When running Origin Agritech's price analysis, check to measure Origin Agritech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Agritech is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Agritech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Agritech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Agritech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Agritech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Origin Agritech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Agritech. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Agritech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 1.17 | Revenue Per Share 14.254 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 3.38 | Return On Assets (0.04) | Return On Equity (3.72) |
The market value of Origin Agritech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Agritech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Agritech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Agritech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Agritech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Agritech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Origin Agritech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Agritech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.