Progressive Corp Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

PGR Stock  USD 206.15  1.50  0.73%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Progressive Corp is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Progressive Corp buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding PGR positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Progressive Corp's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Progressive Corp's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
178.95
Target Price
155.87
Hype Value
206.25
Market Value
206.15
Naive Value
206.26
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Progressive Corp given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Progressive Corp. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Progressive Corp, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Progressive Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
To learn how to invest in Progressive Stock, please use our How to Invest in Progressive Corp guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Progressive and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Progressive Corp. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.

Execute Progressive Corp Buy or Sell Advice

The Progressive recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Progressive Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Progressive Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Progressive Corp's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Progressive CorpBuy Progressive Corp
Hold

Market Performance

Very StrongDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

OvervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Very LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Barely shadows the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

FrailDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Possible ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Progressive Corp has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2427, Jensen Alpha of 0.4123, Total Risk Alpha of 0.1962, Sortino Ratio of 0.4877 and Treynor Ratio of 5.97
Macroaxis provides advice on Progressive Corp to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Progressive Corp. Our recommendation engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Progressive Corp is not overpriced, please check all Progressive Corp fundamentals, including its revenue, cash flow from operations, z score, as well as the relationship between the cash per share and number of employees . Given that Progressive Corp has a price to earning of 93.06 X, we recommend you to check out Progressive Corp market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your recent risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Progressive Corp Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Progressive is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days
The company has 7.07 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.43, which is OK given its current industry classification. Progressive Corp has a current ratio of 0.4, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Progressive Corp until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Progressive Corp's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Progressive Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Progressive to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Progressive Corp's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Progressive Corp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 87.0% of Progressive Corp shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Progressive is a Great Momentum Stock Should You Buy

Progressive Corp Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Progressive Corp's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Progressive Corp's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Progressive Corp daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Progressive Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Progressive Corp returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Progressive Corp.
Mean Return
0.43
Value At Risk
-0.91
Potential Upside
1.63
Standard Deviation
1.00
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Progressive Corp historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Progressive Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Progressive Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Progressive Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Progressive Corp's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Progressive Corp's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Hhg Plc2023-12-31
8.9 M
T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.2023-12-31
8.5 M
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
7.6 M
Principal Financial Group Inc2023-12-31
7.3 M
Capital World Investors2023-12-31
6.9 M
Norges Bank2023-12-31
6.8 M
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2023-12-31
6.4 M
Viking Global Investors Lp2023-12-31
5.9 M
Deutsche Bank Ag2023-12-31
5.8 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
51.5 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
46.6 M
Note, although Progressive Corp's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Progressive Corp Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash152.4M(150.9M)125.6M18.8M(121.3M)(115.2M)
Free Cash Flow5.9B6.7B7.5B6.6B10.4B10.9B
Depreciation306.1M331.8M337.4M336.6M299.7M170.5M
Other Non Cash Items(984.9M)(1.5B)(1.4B)2.1B327.2M343.6M
Dividends Paid1.7B1.6B3.8B260.8M(277.6M)(263.7M)
Capital Expenditures363.5M223.5M243.5M292M252M153.5M
Net Income4.0B5.7B3.4B721.5M3.9B4.1B
End Period Cash Flow227.4M76.5M202.1M220.9M99.6M83.8M
Change To Inventory4.0B3.3B6.7B7.5B6.7B7.0B
Change To Netincome(928M)(1.5B)(1.3B)2.2B2.0B2.1B
Investments(4.1B)(6.0B)(2.7B)(8.0B)(9.5B)(9.0B)
Change Receivables(1.6B)(2.0B)(1.0B)(1.7B)(1.6B)(1.5B)

Progressive Corp Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Progressive Corp or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Progressive Corp's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Progressive stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.41
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.07
σ
Overall volatility
1.04
Ir
Information ratio 0.30

Progressive Corp Volatility Alert

Progressive Corp exhibits relatively low volatility with skewness of 1.67 and kurtosis of 5.19. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Progressive Corp's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Progressive Corp's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Progressive Corp Implied Volatility

Progressive Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Progressive Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Progressive Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Progressive Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Progressive Corp's options are near their expiration.

Progressive Corp Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Progressive Corp's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Progressive Corp's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Progressive Corp and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Progressive Corp or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Progressive Corp's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Progressive Corp by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Progressive Corp to competition
FundamentalsProgressive CorpPeer Average
Return On Equity0.22-0.31
Return On Asset0.0394-0.14
Profit Margin0.06 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.15 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation127.16 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding585.7 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders0.26 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions87.40 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted4.2 M4.71 M
Price To Earning93.06 X28.72 X
Price To Book6.06 X9.51 X
Price To Sales1.94 X11.42 X
Revenue62.08 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.69 B27.38 B
EBITDA299.7 M3.9 B
Net Income3.9 B570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents4.59 B2.7 B
Cash Per Share7.84 X5.01 X
Total Debt7.07 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.43 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.41 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share33.80 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations10.64 B971.22 M
Short Ratio1.87 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share6.59 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth0.29 X4.89 X
Target Price212.27
Number Of Employees61.43 K18.84 K
Beta0.35-0.15
Market Capitalization120.74 B19.03 B
Total Asset84.33 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings18.8 B9.33 B
Z Score11.318.72

Progressive Corp Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Progressive . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Progressive Corp Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Progressive Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Progressive Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total4.9B6.5B7.1B7.4B
Total Assets71.1B70.2B84.3B88.5B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Progressive Corp in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Marketing
Marketing Theme
Companies providing marketing and public relation (PR) services as well as news and media distribution. The Marketing theme has 47 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Marketing Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Progressive Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Progressive Corp's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Progressive Corp's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Progressive Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Progressive Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
To learn how to invest in Progressive Stock, please use our How to Invest in Progressive Corp guide.
Note that the Progressive Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Progressive Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for Progressive Stock analysis

When running Progressive Corp's price analysis, check to measure Progressive Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Progressive Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Progressive Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Progressive Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Progressive Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Progressive Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Progressive Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Progressive Corp. If investors know Progressive will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Progressive Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.424
Dividend Share
1.15
Earnings Share
6.59
Revenue Per Share
106.142
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.254
The market value of Progressive Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Progressive that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Progressive Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Progressive Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Progressive Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Progressive Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Progressive Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Progressive Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Progressive Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.