Novartis Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

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NVS -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: 30th of June 2020  

Considering 30-days investment horizon, and your above average risk tolerance our recommendation regarding Novartis AG is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Novartis buy hold or sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Novartis positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Novartis AG available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. The advice is provided from Novartis buy-and-hold perspective. Additionally, see Novartis Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments please use Instant Ratings tool.

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Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell NovartisBuy Novartis
Cautious Hold

Volatility

Hype Condition

Current Valuation

Odds of Distress

Economic Sensitivity

Analyst Consensus

Piotroski F Score

Financial Leverage

Inapplicable
For the selected time horizon Novartis AG has a mean deviation of 2.13, semi deviation of 3.09, standard deviation of 2.99, variance of 8.92, downside variance of 9.85 and semi variance of 9.52
Macroaxis provides buy or sell recommendations on Novartis AG to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus">analyst consensus on Novartis. Our advice engine determines the firm potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of investors current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Novartis AG is not overpriced, please verify all Novartis AG fundamentals, including its Cash Flow from Operations, and the relationship between Cash and Equivalents and Market Capitalization . Given that Novartis AG has Price to Earning of 18.68 , we recommend you check Novartis market performance and probability of bankruptcy to make sure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Novartis thematic classifications

Drugs IdeaDrugs
Drug manufacturing and delivery
Healthcare IdeaHealthcare
USA Equities from Healthcare industry as classified by Fama & French
Compulsion IdeaCompulsion
Addiction driven consumer products and services

Novartis current analysts recommendations

Target Median Price103.00
Target Mean Price102.67
Recommendation Mean1.00
Target High Price105.00
Number Of Analyst Opinions3
Target Low Price100.00
Average Consensus Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation is comprised of individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.

Novartis Returns Distribution Density

Mean Return0.015277Value At Risk-4.79
Potential Upside4.82Standard Deviation2.99
 Return Density 
      Distribution 

Novartis Cash Flow Accounts

2014201520162017201820192020 (projected)
Capital Expenditure(2.56 B)(2.13 B)(1.7 B)(1.23 B)(1.15 B)(522 M)(563.21 M)
Net Cash Flow or Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents6.34 B(8.35 B)2.33 B1.85 B4.41 B(2.16 B)(2.22 B)
Net Cash Flow Business Acquisitions and Disposals1.04 B(16.51 B)(765 M)(685 M)(829 M)(3.77 B)(4.06 B)
Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares(4.51 B)(4.49 B)(895 M)(5.24 B)(1.34 B)(5.33 B)(5.47 B)
Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities3.32 B1.96 B2.06 B4.1 B4.18 B(4.96 B)(5.09 B)
Payment of Dividends and Other Cash Distributions(6.81 B)(6.64 B)(6.47 B)(6.5 B)(6.97 B)(6.64 B)(7.17 B)
Net Cash Flow from Financing(8.15 B)(9.18 B)(5.31 B)(7.73 B)(4.24 B)(13.63 B)(13.99 B)
Net Cash Flow from Investing881 M(10.78 B)(3.44 B)(3.12 B)(5.59 B)(2.23 B)(2.4 B)
Net Cash Flow Investment Acquisitions and Disposals2.11 B(431 M)92 M(57 M)(2.01 B)3.18 B3.43 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations13.9 B11.9 B11.47 B12.62 B14.27 B13.62 B13.62 B

Novartis Greeks

α
Alpha over DOW
=-0.04
β
Beta against DOW=0.62
σ
Overall volatility
=2.89
Ir
Information ratio =-0.02

Novartis Volatility Alert

Novartis AG shows above average downside volatility of 3.14 for selected time horizon. We advise investors to further inspect Novartis AG to make sure all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with estimation about Novartis future alpha.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Novartis to competition

Novartis Fundamental Vs Peers

FundamentalsNovartisPeer Average
Return On Equity0.0018 (0.31) 
Return On Asset0.0008 (0.14) 
Profit Margin0.0025 (1.27) 
Operating Margin33.89 (5.51) 
Current Valuation232.13 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding2.27 B571.82 M
Shares Owned by Institutions11.06 39.21 
Number of Shares Shorted2.82 M4.71 M
Price to Earning18.68 28.72 
Price to Book3.86 9.51 
Price to Sales4.34 11.42 
Revenue48.68 B9.43 B
Gross Profit34.68 B27.38 B
EBITDA15.53 B3.9 B
Net Income7.14 B570.98 M
Cash and Equivalents11.34 B2.7 B
Cash per Share5.01 5.01 
Total Debt29.33 B5.32 B
Debt to Equity52.80 48.70 
Current Ratio1.04 2.16 
Book Value Per Share29.65 1.93 K
Cash Flow from Operations13.62 B971.22 M
Short Ratio1.21 4.00 
Earnings Per Share5.06 3.12 
Price to Earnings To Growth2.08 4.89 
Number of Employees109 K18.84 K
Beta0.47-0.15
Market Capitalization211.49 B19.03 B
Total Asset131.56 B29.47 B
Working Capital(863 M)1.48 B
Current Asset22.84 B9.34 B
Current Liabilities23.71 B7.9 B
Z Score3.08.72

Novartis Market Momentum

About Novartis Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Novartis AG? Buying stocks such as Novartis isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the stock market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily bases. Although Novartis investors may find it confusing at the beginning, most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply. Please read more on our stock advisor page.

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Additionally, see Novartis Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments please use Instant Ratings tool. Please also try Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and condition page