Groupon Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| GRPN Stock | USD 9.71 0.06 0.61% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your typical level of risk aversion, our recommendation regarding Groupon is 'Strong Sell'. Macroaxis provides Groupon buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Groupon positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Groupon's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Groupon's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 11.56 | Target Price 13.75 | Hype Value 9.83 | Market Value 9.71 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Groupon given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Groupon. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Groupon, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Groupon |
Execute Groupon Buy or Sell Advice
The Groupon recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Groupon. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Groupon or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Groupon's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Sell
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Slightly risky | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Quite High | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Frail | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
Groupon Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Groupon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Groupon has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Groupon has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company currently holds 278.75 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.99, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Groupon has a current ratio of 0.75, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Groupon until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Groupon's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Groupon sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Groupon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Groupon's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 514.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 522.82 M. | |
| Groupon currently holds about 308 M in cash with (78.54 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.12, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Groupon has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 81.0% of Groupon shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: 4 Solid Stocks to Buy as E-Commerce Boosts Retail Sales |
Groupon Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Groupon's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Groupon's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Groupon daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Groupon price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Groupon returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Groupon.
| Mean Return | -0.29 | Value At Risk | -9.02 | Potential Upside | 8.10 | Standard Deviation | 5.87 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Groupon historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Groupon Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Groupon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Groupon backward and forwards among themselves. Groupon's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Groupon's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Prentice Capital Management, Lp | 2023-12-31 | 257.8 K | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2023-12-31 | 246.5 K | Two Sigma Investments Llc | 2023-12-31 | 237.3 K | Shay Capital Llc | 2023-12-31 | 228.6 K | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 228.1 K | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 211.8 K | Scoggin Llc | 2023-09-30 | 200 K | Balyasny Asset Management Llc | 2023-12-31 | 177.2 K | Barclays Plc | 2023-12-31 | 174.4 K | Pale Fire Capital Se | 2023-12-31 | 7 M | Maple Rock Capital Partners, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 2 M |
Groupon Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (24.3M) | (25.2M) | 64.0M | (70.4M) | (63.3M) | (60.2M) | |
| Change In Cash | (92.1M) | 98.4M | (351.6M) | (217.8M) | (114.1M) | (108.4M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 217K | (116.5M) | (176.7M) | (174.8M) | (100.4M) | (95.3M) | |
| Depreciation | 105.8M | 87.5M | 72.8M | 62.7M | 51.2M | 90.9M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 42.1M | 175.8M | (118.6M) | 58.6M | 21.8M | 16.6M | |
| Dividends Paid | 12.4M | 12.6M | 4.1M | 8.8M | 7.9M | 7.5M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 71.1M | 53.0M | 52.8M | 38.8M | 21.8M | 20.7M | |
| Net Income | (11.7M) | (286.2M) | 120.3M | (234.4M) | (55.4M) | (58.2M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 752.7M | 851.1M | 499.5M | 281.7M | 167.6M | 159.3M | |
| Investments | 3.5M | 31.6M | 7.0M | (38.8M) | (23.2M) | (22.1M) | |
| Change Receivables | 13.6M | 13.5M | 5.4M | (10.1M) | (11.6M) | (11.0M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (2.4M) | 198.3M | (127.0M) | (25.5M) | (22.9M) | (21.8M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 163M | 171.8M | (119.4M) | 137.7M | 158.4M | 97.7M |
Groupon Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Groupon or Internet & Direct Marketing Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Groupon's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Groupon stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.45 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 3.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Groupon Volatility Alert
Groupon exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -1.92 and kurtosis of 10.47. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Groupon's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Groupon's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Groupon Implied Volatility
Groupon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Groupon stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Groupon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Groupon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Groupon's options are near their expiration.
Groupon Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Groupon's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Groupon's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Groupon and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Groupon or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Groupon's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Groupon by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Groupon to competition |
| Fundamentals | Groupon | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -5.67 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.0094 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.11) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.11 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 558.77 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 38.97 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 16.57 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 80.68 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 4.14 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 3.95 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.90 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.78 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 514.91 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 522.82 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 40.97 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (55.41 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 308 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 10.12 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 278.75 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 3.99 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.77 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | (1.28) X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (78.54 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.50 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (1.77) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 14.66 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 18.17 | |
| Number Of Employees | 2.21 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.66 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 425.36 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 570.96 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (1.45 B) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (113.57 M) | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 183333 shares by Jiri Ponrt of Groupon subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Groupon Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Groupon . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 54744.45 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.11) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.16 |
About Groupon Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Groupon? Buying financial instruments such as Groupon Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Non Currrent Assets Other | 25.1M | 27.5M | 20.7M | 21.5M | Non Current Assets Total | 569.8M | 425.8M | 330M | 560.5M |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Groupon in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Macroaxis most traded equities with largest long positions over the last 2 years. The Investor Favorites theme has 21 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Investor Favorites Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Groupon Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Groupon Stock analysis
When running Groupon's price analysis, check to measure Groupon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Groupon is operating at the current time. Most of Groupon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Groupon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Groupon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Groupon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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| Competition Analyzer Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Pattern Recognition Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges |
Is Groupon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. If investors know Groupon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Groupon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.092 | Earnings Share (1.77) | Revenue Per Share 16.481 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Groupon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.