Etsy Inc Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ETSY Stock | USD 67.34 0.15 0.22% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your below-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Etsy Inc is 'Sell'. Macroaxis provides Etsy buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Etsy positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Etsy's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Etsy's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 82.78 | Target Price 98.21 | Hype Value 67.34 | Market Value 67.34 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Etsy Inc given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Etsy. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Etsy Inc, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Etsy |
Execute Etsy Buy or Sell Advice
The Etsy recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Etsy Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Etsy Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Etsy's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Sell
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Etsy Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Etsy Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from cnbc.com: Jim Cramers top 10 things to watch in the stock market Thursday |
Etsy Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Etsy's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Etsy's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Etsy daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Etsy Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Etsy returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Etsy.
| Mean Return | 0.03 | Value At Risk | -4.1 | Potential Upside | 4.76 | Standard Deviation | 2.74 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Etsy historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Etsy Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Etsy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Etsy Inc backward and forwards among themselves. Etsy's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Etsy's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Elliott Investment Management L.p. | 2023-12-31 | 1.9 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 1.8 M | Renaissance Technologies Corp | 2023-12-31 | 1.8 M | Bank Of America Corp | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Hmi Capital Management, L.p. | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Citadel Advisors Llc | 2023-09-30 | 1.6 M | Artisan Partners Limited Partnership | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Amundi | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2023-12-31 | 1.4 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 13.4 M | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 10.4 M |
Etsy Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 76.3M | 800.8M | (463.9M) | 141.1M | (12.3M) | (11.7M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 191.6M | 671.8M | 623.4M | 652.9M | 665.6M | 698.9M | |
| Depreciation | 48.0M | 58.2M | 74.3M | 96.7M | 91.3M | 45.9M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 23.9M | 80.0M | 8.9M | 1.1B | 95.9M | 121.6M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 15.3M | 7.1M | 28.2M | 30.7M | 39.9M | 24.2M | |
| Net Income | 95.9M | 349.2M | 493.5M | (694.3M) | 307.6M | 322.9M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 448.6M | 1.2B | 785.5M | 926.6M | 914.3M | 513.9M | |
| Investments | (200.7M) | (3.4M) | 172.1M | (30.0M) | (73.3M) | (77.0M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 638.1M | 502.3M | 947.2M | (69K) | (79.4K) | (75.4K) | |
| Change To Netincome | 51.0M | 144.6M | 56.2M | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.5B | |
| Change Receivables | (12.7M) | (22.5M) | (19.3M) | (14.1M) | (12.7M) | (13.3M) |
Etsy Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Etsy or Internet & Direct Marketing Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Etsy's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Etsy stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Etsy Volatility Alert
Etsy Inc currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.02 and Jensen Alpha of -0.08. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Etsy's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Etsy's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Etsy Implied Volatility
Etsy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Etsy Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Etsy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Etsy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Etsy's options are near their expiration.
Etsy Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Etsy's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Etsy's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Etsy and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Etsy or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Etsy's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Etsy by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Etsy to competition |
| Fundamentals | Etsy | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -12.24 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0883 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.11 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.17 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 9.28 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 118.49 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.91 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 99.09 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 15.28 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 44.71 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 21.42 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 2.89 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 2.75 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.82 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 475.25 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 307.57 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.01 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 7.95 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 2.39 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 4.11 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 2.93 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | (4.57) X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 705.51 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 4.55 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 2.24 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.11 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 79.75 | |
| Number Of Employees | 2.42 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 2.03 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 7.98 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 2.69 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (1.36 B) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 859.66 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 4846 shares by Raina Moskowitz of Etsy subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Etsy Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Etsy . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Etsy Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Etsy Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Etsy Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.5B | Total Assets | 3.8B | 2.6B | 2.7B | 1.6B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Etsy in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Alcohol Thematic Idea Now
Alcohol
Companies involved in production and distribution of wines and alcoholic beverages. The Alcohol theme has 37 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Alcohol Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Etsy Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Complementary Tools for Etsy Stock analysis
When running Etsy's price analysis, check to measure Etsy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Etsy is operating at the current time. Most of Etsy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Etsy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Etsy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Etsy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Etsy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Etsy. If investors know Etsy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Etsy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Earnings Share 2.24 | Revenue Per Share 22.435 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.043 | Return On Assets 0.0883 |
The market value of Etsy Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Etsy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Etsy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Etsy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Etsy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Etsy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Etsy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Etsy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Etsy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.