Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

CMG Stock  USD 2,907  16.69  0.57%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Chipotle Mexican Grill is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Chipotle Mexican buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding CMG positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Chipotle Mexican's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Chipotle Mexican's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
2.7 K
Target Price
2.2 K
Hype Value
2.9 K
Market Value
2.9 K
Naive Value
K
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Chipotle Mexican Grill given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Chipotle Mexican. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Chipotle Mexican Grill, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Chipotle Mexican Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Chipotle and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Chipotle Mexican Grill. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in population.

Execute Chipotle Mexican Buy or Sell Advice

The Chipotle recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Chipotle Mexican Grill. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Chipotle Mexican Grill or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Chipotle Mexican's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Chipotle MexicanBuy Chipotle Mexican
Strong Buy

Market Performance

SolidDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

OvervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Very SmallDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Follows the market closelyDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

InapplicableDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Chipotle Mexican Grill has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1556, Jensen Alpha of 0.284, Total Risk Alpha of 0.05, Sortino Ratio of 0.2828 and Treynor Ratio of 0.6528
Macroaxis provides advice on Chipotle Mexican Grill to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Chipotle Mexican Grill. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Chipotle Mexican is not overpriced, please confirm all Chipotle Mexican Grill fundamentals, including its shares owned by insiders, revenue, total debt, as well as the relationship between the price to earning and net income . Given that Chipotle Mexican Grill has a price to earning of 106.17 X, we suggest you to validate Chipotle Mexican Grill market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Chipotle Mexican Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Chipotle Mexican is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from bizjournals.com: Openings Peruvian restaurant launches, Design District welcomes new eateries and stores

Chipotle Mexican Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Chipotle Mexican's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Chipotle Mexican's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Chipotle Mexican daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Chipotle Mexican Grill price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Chipotle Mexican returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Chipotle Mexican.
Mean Return
0.36
Value At Risk
-1.14
Potential Upside
2.25
Standard Deviation
1.34
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Chipotle Mexican historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Chipotle Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Chipotle Mexican is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chipotle Mexican Grill backward and forwards among themselves. Chipotle Mexican's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Chipotle Mexican's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Artisan Partners Limited Partnership2023-12-31
484.6 K
Alliancebernstein L.p.2023-12-31
460.4 K
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
430.6 K
American Century Companies Inc2023-12-31
412.3 K
Goldman Sachs Group Inc2023-12-31
390.3 K
Norges Bank2023-12-31
352.2 K
Wellington Management Company Llp2023-12-31
287 K
Northern Trust Corp2023-12-31
274.6 K
Hhg Plc2023-12-31
250.5 K
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
2.7 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
M
Note, although Chipotle Mexican's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Chipotle Mexican Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Capital Expenditures333.9M373.4M442.5M479.2M560.7M588.8M
Change To Inventory(4.5M)(394K)(6.4M)(3.0M)(3.6M)(3.5M)
Change In Cash228.3M127.4M210.4M(437.3M)177.2M186.1M
Free Cash Flow387.7M290.5M839.6M844.0M1.2B1.3B
Depreciation376.7M423.1M254.7M286.8M319.4M163.8M
Other Non Cash Items4.8M32.7M13.0M3.8M25.5M26.8M
Net Income350.2M355.8M653.0M899.1M1.2B1.3B
End Period Cash Flow508.5M635.8M846.2M409.0M586.2M352.6M
Change To Netincome110.8M194.8M177.0M37.9M43.6M82.9M
Investments28.0M(59.4M)(83.6M)(350.9M)(977.7M)(928.8M)
Change Receivables(2.6M)3.0M(1.7M)(14.0M)(12.6M)(12.0M)

Chipotle Mexican Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Chipotle Mexican or Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Chipotle Mexican's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Chipotle stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.28
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.54
σ
Overall volatility
1.34
Ir
Information ratio 0.17

Chipotle Mexican Volatility Alert

Chipotle Mexican Grill exhibits relatively low volatility with skewness of 2.32 and kurtosis of 9.86. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Chipotle Mexican's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Chipotle Mexican's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Chipotle Mexican Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Chipotle Mexican's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Chipotle Mexican's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Chipotle Mexican and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Chipotle Mexican or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Chipotle Mexican's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chipotle Mexican by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Chipotle Mexican to competition
FundamentalsChipotle MexicanPeer Average
Return On Equity0.45-0.31
Return On Asset0.13-0.14
Profit Margin0.12 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.15 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation82.46 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding27.42 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders0.58 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions93.48 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted733.12 K4.71 M
Price To Earning106.17 X28.72 X
Price To Book26.03 X9.51 X
Price To Sales8.07 X11.42 X
Revenue9.87 B9.43 B
Gross Profit3.37 B27.38 B
EBITDA2.03 B3.9 B
Net Income1.23 B570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents384 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share28.25 X5.01 X
Total Debt4.05 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity1.60 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.32 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share111.65 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations1.78 B971.22 M
Short Ratio4.28 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share44.47 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth2.55 X4.89 X
Target Price2793.79
Number Of Employees116.07 K18.84 K
Beta1.29-0.15
Market Capitalization79.71 B19.03 B
Total Asset8.04 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings6.06 B9.33 B
Working Capital590.09 M1.48 B
Note: Sale by Laurie Schalow of 162 shares of Chipotle Mexican [view details]

Chipotle Mexican Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Chipotle . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Chipotle Mexican Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Chipotle Mexican Grill? Buying financial instruments such as Chipotle Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Other Current Liabilities335.5M318.0M375.2M394.0M
Total Assets6.7B6.9B8.0B8.4B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Chipotle Mexican in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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ETF themes focus on helping investors to gain exposure to a broad range of assets, diversify, and lower overall costs. The Large Cap ETFs theme has 550 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Large Cap ETFs Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Chipotle Mexican Grill is a strong investment it is important to analyze Chipotle Mexican's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Chipotle Mexican's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Chipotle Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Chipotle Mexican Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

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Is Chipotle Mexican's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chipotle Mexican. If investors know Chipotle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chipotle Mexican listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.273
Earnings Share
44.47
Revenue Per Share
358.253
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.154
Return On Assets
0.1333
The market value of Chipotle Mexican Grill is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chipotle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chipotle Mexican's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chipotle Mexican's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chipotle Mexican's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chipotle Mexican's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chipotle Mexican's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chipotle Mexican is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chipotle Mexican's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.