Blue Bird Corp Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| BLBD Stock | USD 34.99 1.30 3.58% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your slightly conservative level of risk, our recommendation regarding Blue Bird Corp is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Blue Bird buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding BLBD positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Blue Bird's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Blue Bird's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 31.01 | Target Price 27.58 | Hype Value 35.27 | Market Value 34.99 | Naive Value 34.26 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Blue Bird Corp given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Blue Bird. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Blue Bird Corp, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Blue |
Execute Blue Bird Buy or Sell Advice
The Blue recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Blue Bird Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Blue Bird Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Blue Bird's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Good | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Blue Bird Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Over 84.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Blue Bird to Report Fiscal 2024 Second Quarter Results on May 8, 2024 |
Blue Bird Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Blue Bird's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Blue Bird's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Blue Bird daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Blue Bird Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Blue Bird returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Blue Bird.
| Mean Return | 0.46 | Value At Risk | -4.66 | Potential Upside | 5.49 | Standard Deviation | 2.74 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Blue Bird historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Blue Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Blue Bird is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Blue Bird Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Blue Bird's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Blue Bird's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | First Trust Advisors L.p. | 2023-12-31 | 699 K | Nuveen Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 658.1 K | Kennedy Capital Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 535.2 K | State Street Corporation | 2023-12-31 | 533.4 K | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 526.3 K | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 494.6 K | Two Sigma Investments Llc | 2023-12-31 | 442.7 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 431.5 K | Blair William & Co | 2023-12-31 | 424.8 K | American Securities Llc | 2023-12-31 | 4 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.9 M |
Blue Bird Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 22.3M | (68.7M) | (26.5M) | 7.7M | 6.9M | 7.3M | |
| Change In Cash | (26.5M) | (32.8M) | (1.2M) | 68.5M | 78.8M | 82.7M | |
| Net Borrowings | 40.1M | (10.8M) | 32.6M | (42.6M) | (49.0M) | (46.5M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (15.5M) | (66.5M) | (30.9M) | 111.4M | 128.1M | 134.5M | |
| Depreciation | 14.4M | 13.4M | 14.1M | 16.0M | 18.4M | 12.3M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 2.1M | 4.0M | 22.1M | (3.7M) | (4.2M) | (4.0M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 1.9M | 1.5M | 672K | 1.1M | 1.0M | 1.8M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 19.0M | 12.2M | 6.5M | 8.5M | 9.8M | 15.8M | |
| Net Income | 12.2M | (289K) | (45.8M) | 23.8M | 21.4M | 22.5M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 44.5M | 11.7M | 10.5M | 79.0M | 90.8M | 49.0M | |
| Change To Netincome | 31.4M | (8.7M) | (54.0M) | 21.3M | 19.2M | 20.1M | |
| Investments | (18.8M) | (11.3M) | (6.5M) | (8.5M) | (9.8M) | (10.3M) |
Blue Bird Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Blue Bird or Machinery sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Blue Bird's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Blue stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.81 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Blue Bird Volatility Alert
Blue Bird Corp currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.14 and Jensen Alpha of 0.26. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Blue Bird's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Blue Bird's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Blue Bird Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Blue Bird's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Blue Bird's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Blue Bird and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Blue Bird or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Blue Bird's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blue Bird by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Blue Bird to competition |
| Fundamentals | Blue Bird | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 1.85 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.16 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.05 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.12 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 1.19 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 32.2 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.75 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 83.96 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.29 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 27.57 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 15.38 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.95 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.13 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 36.55 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 60.33 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 23.81 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 26.51 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.83 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 131.91 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 9.94 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.42 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 2.35 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 119.93 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.24 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.90 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.13 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 38.93 | |
| Number Of Employees | 1.83 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.37 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.09 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 417.77 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (55.7 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 6.44 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Douglas Grimm of 1954 shares of Blue Bird subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Blue Bird Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Blue . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Blue Bird Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Blue Bird Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Blue Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 172.3M | 131.9M | 151.7M | 167.5M | Total Assets | 366.1M | 417.8M | 480.4M | 308.7M |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Blue Bird in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Social Domain Thematic Idea Now
Social Domain
New or established large and mid-sized companies that are involved in the social media industry, including entities that provide web-based or mobile media applications and services across across large segment of population in multiple geographical areas. The Social Domain theme has 39 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Social Domain Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Blue Bird Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note that the Blue Bird Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Blue Bird's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Blue Stock analysis
When running Blue Bird's price analysis, check to measure Blue Bird's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blue Bird is operating at the current time. Most of Blue Bird's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blue Bird's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blue Bird's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blue Bird to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Blue Bird's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Bird. If investors know Blue will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Bird listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.351 | Earnings Share 1.9 | Revenue Per Share 37.832 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.348 | Return On Assets 0.1571 |
The market value of Blue Bird Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Bird's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Bird's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Bird's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Bird's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Bird's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Blue Bird is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Bird's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.