Aflac Incorporated Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AFL Stock  USD 85.86  0.24  0.28%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Aflac Incorporated is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Aflac Incorporated buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AFL positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Aflac Incorporated's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Aflac Incorporated's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
73.55
Target Price
77.08
Hype Value
85.97
Market Value
85.86
Naive Value
84.2
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Aflac Incorporated given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Aflac Incorporated. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Aflac Incorporated, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Aflac Incorporated Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For more information on how to buy Aflac Stock please use our How to buy in Aflac Stock guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Aflac and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Aflac Incorporated. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.

Execute Aflac Incorporated Buy or Sell Advice

The Aflac recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Aflac Incorporated. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Aflac Incorporated or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Aflac Incorporated's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Aflac IncorporatedBuy Aflac Incorporated
Cautious Hold

Market Performance

InsignificantDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

OvervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Very LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Barely shadows the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Aflac Incorporated has a Mean Deviation of 0.7927, Semi Deviation of 2.13, Standard Deviation of 1.5, Variance of 2.26, Downside Variance of 5.56 and Semi Variance of 4.52
Macroaxis provides advice on Aflac Incorporated to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Aflac Incorporated. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Aflac Incorporated is not overpriced, please confirm all Aflac Incorporated fundamentals, including its gross profit, debt to equity, and the relationship between the price to book and cash and equivalents . Given that Aflac Incorporated has a price to earning of 9.27 X, we suggest you to validate Aflac Incorporated market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Aflac Incorporated Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

The company has 7.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.45, which is OK given its current industry classification. Aflac Incorporated has a current ratio of 0.74, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Aflac Incorporated until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Aflac Incorporated's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Aflac Incorporated sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Aflac to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Aflac Incorporated's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
About 60.0% of Aflac Incorporated shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of March 2024 Aflac Incorporated paid $ 0.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Aflac Incorporated to Release First Quarter Results and CFO Video Update on May 1, 2024 and Host Webcast on May 2, 2024

Aflac Incorporated Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Aflac Incorporated's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Aflac Incorporated's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Aflac Incorporated daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Aflac Incorporated price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Aflac Incorporated returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Aflac Incorporated.
Mean Return
0.10
Value At Risk
-1.08
Potential Upside
1.59
Standard Deviation
1.50
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Aflac Incorporated historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Aflac Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Aflac Incorporated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aflac Incorporated backward and forwards among themselves. Aflac Incorporated's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Aflac Incorporated's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Alliancebernstein L.p.2023-12-31
5.1 M
Lsv Asset Management2023-12-31
4.6 M
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
4.5 M
Amvescap Plc.2023-12-31
4.4 M
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2023-12-31
M
Jpmorgan Chase & Co2023-12-31
3.9 M
Bank Of America Corp2023-12-31
3.3 M
Ubs Asset Mgmt Americas Inc2023-12-31
3.3 M
Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc2023-12-31
3.2 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
52.4 M
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd2023-12-31
52.3 M
Note, although Aflac Incorporated's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Aflac Incorporated Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash559M245M(90M)(1.1B)363M381.2M
Free Cash Flow5.5B6.0B5.1B3.9B3.2B5.0B
Other Non Cash Items323M524M(440M)(427M)(899M)(944.0M)
Dividends Paid771M769M855M979M(966M)(917.7M)
Net Income3.3B4.8B4.3B4.2B4.7B4.9B
End Period Cash Flow4.9B5.1B5.1B3.9B4.3B2.2B
Depreciation1.3B1.2B1.2B1.2B39M37.1M
Change To Netincome493M452M(547M)(525M)(472.5M)(448.9M)
Investments(2.7B)(3.2B)(1.1B)(1.5B)1.5B1.6B
Change Receivables(32M)52M72M2M1.8M1.7M
Net Borrowings614M1.2B417M(222M)(199.8M)(189.8M)

Aflac Incorporated Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Aflac Incorporated or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Aflac Incorporated's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Aflac stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.14
σ
Overall volatility
1.56
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Aflac Incorporated Volatility Alert

Aflac Incorporated currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.02 and Jensen Alpha of 0.07. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Aflac Incorporated's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Aflac Incorporated's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Aflac Incorporated Implied Volatility

Aflac Incorporated's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aflac Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aflac Incorporated's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aflac Incorporated stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aflac Incorporated's options are near their expiration.

Aflac Incorporated Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Aflac Incorporated's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Aflac Incorporated's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Aflac Incorporated and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Aflac Incorporated or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Aflac Incorporated's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aflac Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Aflac Incorporated to competition
FundamentalsAflac IncorporatedPeer Average
Return On Equity0.22-0.31
Return On Asset0.0264-0.14
Profit Margin0.25 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.09 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation53.83 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding575.41 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders9.80 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions60.46 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted11.4 M4.71 M
Price To Earning9.27 X28.72 X
Price To Book2.24 X9.51 X
Price To Sales2.64 X11.42 X
Revenue18.7 B9.43 B
Gross Profit8.08 B27.38 B
EBITDA39 M3.9 B
Net Income4.66 B570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents3.94 B2.7 B
Cash Per Share10.50 X5.01 X
Total Debt7.39 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.45 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.75 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share38.01 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations3.19 B971.22 M
Short Ratio4.91 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share7.80 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth0.93 X4.89 X
Target Price83.67
Number Of Employees12.79 K18.84 K
Beta0.91-0.15
Market Capitalization49.4 B19.03 B
Total Asset130.88 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings47.99 B9.33 B
Z Score4.678.72
Note: Disposition of 5000 shares by Thomas Kenny of Aflac Incorporated at 84.621 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Aflac Incorporated Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Aflac . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Aflac Incorporated Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Aflac Incorporated? Buying financial instruments such as Aflac Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total8.0B7.4B7.4B7.8B
Total Assets157.5B131.7B130.9B75.2B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Aflac Incorporated in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Farming Thematic Idea Now

Farming
Farming Theme
Companies producing farming products and providing services for farmers. The Farming theme has 45 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Farming Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Aflac Incorporated is a strong investment it is important to analyze Aflac Incorporated's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Aflac Incorporated's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Aflac Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Aflac Incorporated Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For more information on how to buy Aflac Stock please use our How to buy in Aflac Stock guide.
Note that the Aflac Incorporated information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aflac Incorporated's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

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Is Aflac Incorporated's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aflac Incorporated. If investors know Aflac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aflac Incorporated listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.435
Dividend Share
1.68
Earnings Share
7.8
Revenue Per Share
31.368
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
The market value of Aflac Incorporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aflac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aflac Incorporated's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aflac Incorporated's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aflac Incorporated's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aflac Incorporated's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aflac Incorporated's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aflac Incorporated is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aflac Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.