Autodesk Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ADSK Stock | USD 215.00 2.93 1.34% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your typical level of risk aversion, our recommendation regarding Autodesk is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Autodesk buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Autodesk positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Autodesk's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Autodesk's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 199.06 | Target Price 241.17 | Hype Value 212.62 | Market Value 215 | Naive Value 210.42 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Autodesk given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Autodesk. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Autodesk, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Autodesk |
Execute Autodesk Buy or Sell Advice
The Autodesk recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Autodesk. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Autodesk or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Autodesk's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Autodesk Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Autodesk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 2.63 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.35, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Autodesk has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Autodesk until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Autodesk's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Autodesk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Autodesk to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Autodesk's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 95.0% of Autodesk shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Why Autodesk Stock Slipped This Week |
Autodesk Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Autodesk's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Autodesk's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Autodesk daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Autodesk price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Autodesk returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Autodesk.
| Mean Return | -0.18 | Value At Risk | -3.6 | Potential Upside | 2.44 | Standard Deviation | 1.71 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Autodesk historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Autodesk Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Autodesk is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Autodesk backward and forwards among themselves. Autodesk's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Autodesk's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Sustainable Growth Advisers, Lp | 2023-12-31 | 3.3 M | Clearbridge Advisors, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 2.9 M | Fidelity International Ltd | 2023-12-31 | 2.9 M | Brown Advisory Holdings Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2.9 M | Pictet Asset Manangement Sa | 2023-12-31 | 2.8 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 2.5 M | Norges Bank | 2023-12-31 | 2.5 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 2.4 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 2.4 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 19 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 18.8 M |
Autodesk Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (32M) | (27M) | 64.6M | (40M) | (36M) | (34.2M) | |
| Change In Cash | 888.7M | (2.5M) | (243.8M) | 419M | (55M) | (52.3M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.4B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 2.0B | 1.3B | 1.3B | |
| Depreciation | 127.3M | 123.8M | 148.1M | 150M | 139M | 87.7M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 53.2M | 95.9M | 66.5M | 46M | 61M | 48.5M | |
| Net Income | 214.5M | 1.2B | 497M | 823M | 906M | 951.3M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.5B | 1.9B | 1.9B | 2.0B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (11.4M) | 38.8M | 121.3M | 26M | (38M) | (36.1M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 360.8M | (341.4M) | 565.2M | 406M | 466.9M | 490.2M | |
| Investments | 7.5M | (403.9M) | (273.3M) | (143M) | (164.5M) | (172.7M) | |
| Change Receivables | (178.5M) | 12.6M | (66.2M) | (247M) | (222.3M) | (211.2M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (1.1M) | (450M) | 997M | (350M) | (315M) | (299.3M) |
Autodesk Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Autodesk or Software sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Autodesk's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Autodesk stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Autodesk Volatility Alert
Autodesk exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.97 and kurtosis of 1.76. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Autodesk's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Autodesk's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Autodesk Implied Volatility
Autodesk's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Autodesk stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Autodesk's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Autodesk stock will not fluctuate a lot when Autodesk's options are near their expiration.
Autodesk Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Autodesk's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Autodesk's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Autodesk and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Autodesk or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Autodesk's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Autodesk by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Autodesk to competition |
| Fundamentals | Autodesk | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.6 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0729 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.16 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.21 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 47.02 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 213.92 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.21 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 95.27 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 2.65 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 77.47 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 27.33 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 9.22 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 5.5 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 4.58 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.27 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 906 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.8 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 8.35 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 2.63 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 3.35 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.73 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 8.67 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.31 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.73 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 4.18 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.42 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 288.9 | |
| Beta | 1.42 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 46.62 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 9.91 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (1.71 B) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (659 M) | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 563.87 M | 9.34 B |
Note: Disposition of 1020 shares by Andrew Anagnost of Autodesk at 261.54 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Autodesk Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Autodesk . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 52851.91 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.66) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 216.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 215.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.85) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.93) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.57 |
About Autodesk Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Autodesk? Buying financial instruments such as Autodesk Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 3.1B | 2.7B | 2.6B | 1.5B | Total Assets | 8.6B | 9.4B | 9.9B | 10.4B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Autodesk in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Soft Drinks Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Autodesk Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Autodesk Stock please use our How to buy in Autodesk Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
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Is Autodesk's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Autodesk. If investors know Autodesk will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Autodesk listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Earnings Share 4.18 | Revenue Per Share 25.687 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.115 | Return On Assets 0.0729 |
The market value of Autodesk is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Autodesk that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Autodesk's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Autodesk's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Autodesk's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Autodesk's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Autodesk's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Autodesk is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Autodesk's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.